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Did the Chase Hurt NASCAR's Ratings in '07?
NASCAR ratings were down in 2007, and everyone seems to be in a panic. Why are people turning away from what is, or at least was, America's fastest growing sport? Many want to blame the Chase format, implemented in 2004. If creates a playoff system, where the last ten races basically determine the winner of the Nextel Cup Championship. The top 12 drivers in points are seeded according to how many wins they had so far. Purists hate it, saying it puts too much emphasis on the last few races. A driver can basically get hot and win the championship, even if he wasn't the most consistent throughout the season. And this did happen in 2007. Jimmie Johnson won the championship thanks to four wins in the last five races. Jeff Gordon was incredibly consistent, garnering a record 30 top ten finishes. Johnson had a rough stretch during the summer where he failed to finish the race on a handful of occasions. Under the old system, Gordon would have clinched the championship before the last race, and Johnson's struggles in June and July would have left him too far behind to realistically compete. So is the Chase to blame for the declining ratings? I honestly can't find a single reason to say "yes." Let's assume for a moment that the old system was in place, and Jeff Gordon had a 300 point lead throughout the last two months of the season. The championship suspense would be gone, and presumably, the motivation to tune in to follow the quest for the Cup. Oh sure, plenty of hardcore fans would still watch, but what about those torn between NASCAR and pro football, the two main sports attractions on Sunday afternoons in the fall? Let's assume for a moment you like both the NFL and NASCAR. Your team isn't playing, so you won't be investing emotional energy into the football game. But you're still torn as to what you want to watch. Wouldn't you be more likely to watch NASCAR if there was still some drama related to the championship, as opposed to one driver with a lead that's virtually insurmountable? Without the Chase format, we basically would have known Jeff Gordon was going to be the winner with about five races left. With the Chase format, it would be very difficult for one driver to clinch the championship before the last race. So if the Chase format isn't to blame for the sagging ratings, what is? Three words: Dale Earnhardt Junior. NASCAR'S most popular driver was not in the Chase this year, and really wasn't in position to win any of the Chase races. The influence this one man has on the sport is incredible. I would estimate at least a third of NASCAR fans root for Junior. NASCAR has attracted many new fans in recent years, but the fanbase is still primarily blue collar and from the south. If you look at the top drivers this season, most were from other areas. The drivers' personalities and public images have changed so much that to some, the sport may almost be unrecognizable. For many, Junior is their one link to the past (considering his father's dominance) and the one big name driver who still embodies the qualities the "old school" guys had. If he doesn't have a chance, many fans simply don't care. Is the Chase a good or bad thing? That's a topic for another time and place. But it's not the reason fewer people are watching NASCAR. |
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This intel was contributed by sre94
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February, 2012
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